Thursday, February 12, 2015

Salt Lake County Economic Update

 Jim Robson, Economist

Solid Growth and Low Unemployment

The Wasatch Front South Service Area labor market cooled from a year-over employment growth of 2.7 percent at the beginning of 2014, slowing in the spring and summer to a growth rate of about 2.1 percent. The region’s unemployment rate was around 3.5 percent by mid-year 2014 and drifted down to 3.3 percent by the end of the year. In 2013, Wasatch Front South unemployment averaged 4.2 percent. Economic expansion has brought down the unemployment rate low enough so that many employers are reporting some difficulty in recruiting the workers they need. This may put some upward pressure on wages in the coming year.

Overall for the Wasatch Front South (Salt Lake and Tooele Counties), continuing healthy job growth and an improved labor market characterizes economic conditions through 2014 and into 2015.  The average 2014 job count in the Wasatch Front South area showed estimated employment growth of around 2.2 percent, adding an additional 13,800 jobs. Substantial job increases were added from professional/scientific/technical services, state higher education, administrative support, accommodations/food services and finance/insurance. Looking forward into 2015, job growth will likely continue between 2.2 to 2.5 percent in the region, with Tooele County once again contributing to positive job growth.

Salt Lake County

•    Year-over job increases continue across most major industry sectors with overall nonfarm payroll employment growth of 2.5 percent from September 2013 to September 2014. Total jobs in September 2014 were 642,872, an increase of 15,805 jobs over 12 months.

•    The most new jobs are being created in professional/scientific/technical services, construction, administrative support services, state government and finance/insurance services.

•    Within professional/scientific/technical services a substantial number of the job opportunities are in computer systems design, accounting/bookkeeping, advertising, management/technical consulting, architectural, and engineering services.

•    Construction employment grew by 5.5 percent for the 12 months ending in September 2014. Residential construction activities added 500 positions and all other construction activities increased employment by 1,219.

•    Within the administrative support services industry, most of the new jobs created were in temporary help services.

•    The state government increase of 1,561 jobs, growing by 3.7 percent from a year earlier, is somewhat surprising at first glance. In fact, most state government agencies show no significant job growth or even have small reductions. The growth in state government was found in two areas — higher education and the University of Utah Hospital system.

•    In Salt Lake County, state colleges, universities and technical schools added 940 jobs and the University Hospital and clinics added 504 jobs. Together, all other state government functions had a net loss of 117 positions in the county.

•    Mining employment was down by about 386 jobs, with much of the decline related to the major landslide in April 2013 at the Bingham Canyon Kennecott Copper Mine and some reduced need for construction-related mining activities.

•    During the fourth quarter of 2014, initial unemployment insurance claims averaged 605, the lowest level in Salt Lake County for any fourth quarter since 2007. This indicates that the Salt Lake County labor market has the lowest levels of job separations in seven years.

•    For the year ending in September 2014, there was a net increase of 3.6 percent in firms and worksites within Salt Lake County. This increase of 1,403 units brought the total count of firms and worksites to 40,361.

•    The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Salt Lake County has continued to come down in 2014. By December there were about 19,300 unemployed, with an unemployment rate of about 3.3 percent compared to 3.9 percent in December 2013.

•    Employment gains among the majority of Salt Lake County industry sectors are expected to continue. Overall average job growth in 2014 was estimated to be about 14,100 or in the neighborhood of 2.3 percent. This was a slowing of economic activity from the county’s employment growth of 20,395 in 2013. The 2015 economic outlook continues to be positioned with broad based employment gains continuing at about 2.3 to 2.6 percent.